I think you're right about dealers' intent. They should sell at replacement cost, but many will try to hold out to get their cost back. The 8% premium is partially as a reaction to the drop.

Several dealers at the Conference mentioned the difficulty of the Mint getting gold blanks for striking American Eagles. The used to have three sources of the blanks. They dropped two. Now the sole supplier (who also supplies blanks to foreign mints) cannot meet demand. I still think there are political reasons not to release gold from the Treasury at current prices when they are artificially depressed. I checked other dealers at the Gold Conference today. Nobody has US American Eagles in inventory to sell immediately! You might as well lock in your price now for delivery in a month or so as I expect much higher gold price when the situation settles. Several speakers were talking about $2000-2500 gold price in the next year.

There was speculation that part of the problem is the US Mint's bureaucratic mindset that says "We have met our production quotas for 2008 and we have no reason to strike more". 2009's will be available in a few months. Most bullion buyers couldn't care less about the date on the coin [g].