Dukakis was ahead of Bush 41 by 17% in the polls just a few weeks before the general election 20 years ago. On election day, he carried 10 states and DC. Carter was ahead of Reagan in pre-election polls and he got slaughtered on election day. Mondale, Gore and Kerry also were all ahead in the polls during their post-convention campaigns. Obama and McCain are pretty close to being even in current polls -- both hold a slim margin depending on which poll you pick. If I was a Democrat, I wouldn't be feeling too confident right now.