John, your 50/42 might be correct but then again that all depends as to whom you listen to.
Some polls have it dead even some only 1 percentage point apart and many others all over the map.

Here is but 1 example
WASHINGTON (AP) — The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

The only poll that really counts is when the balloting is done and the smoke clears.

Meanwhile like I said earlier since the polls seem to change on a regular basis or so it seems one would tend to think that the Media which is basically left wing to begin with can play a big roll in their reporting. After all no one wants to back loser.

I'll repeat what I said in an earlier post.
You give me the results that you would like to see and I'll give you the statistics to support it