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The Chip Board Archive 18

Playing Poker with the Devil

A simple analogy will help illustrate this point. Imagine that you are playing poker with 10 people and that you learn that a minority of them is broke and would not pay you if they lose. You don't know, however, who the ones are who won't pay. In this environment, the risk of losing would be too high even if you know that most of the players are perfectly sound financially and would pay up if they lose.

In this environment, any rational card player would stop making bets until the true solvency position of each player is revealed and the bankrupt ones are expelled from the game. Having insolvent players sitting at the table spoils the game.

This is what is happening in the banking system -- only worse, because in poker you would only fail to collect the pot if you played with an insolvent player, while in the banking system you would lose your bets if you lend to an insolvent bank. Liquidity preference will not subside until the losses are made explicit, written off and absorbed.

To achieve this you simply let the illiquid borrowers and their financiers go bankrupt. This is how financial crises were solved in the 19th century. The method was expensive because commercial banks are central to the operation of the payments system and their uncontrolled failure can cause enormous damage to the economy.

Yet the alternative, continuing to play poker with failed players, also causes enormous damage. This is because the resources that could be used to spur economic recovery are not allocated due to lack of information. Worse still, resources are taken from the efficient to keep insolvent banks and companies operating.

The government must allow bank losses to come to the surface. The $700 billion rescue fund can be used for this purpose -- absorbing the losses and weeding out the failed players. How do we accomplish this? By forcing the failed commercial banks to write off their losses then asking the owners to compensate for the losses with new capital. If they don't do it, the government takes over and recapitalizes the banks by purchasing the bad loans at their nominal value (as if they had not been written off). This no longer benefits the previous owners, who have already abandoned the table. The government then sells the banks, making a loss equal to the write-offs.

The $700 billion rescue fund will more than cover this approach. The fund should not be used to hide the losses in the accounts of the financial system by pretending that the government will recover all of them, as is the case now. This will only prolong the paralysis of the world economy, and ruin an otherwise winnable poker game.

I wish I had written this, but it's from an article in today's Wall Street Journal. Written by Manuel Hinds, author of "Playing Monopoly with the Devil"and former finance minister of El Salvador.

Thought poker players on this bb might appreciate the analogy [g].

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