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19,
Gayego
Hargus Sexton & Sandra Sexton/Paulo Lobo
Mike Smith
3-2-0 in five starts
Bingo, my winner. Conundrum pedigree for distance, but at 15-1 a real pro. Determined. Must sit. Must stalk.
9,
Pyro
Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky)/Steve Asmussen
Shawn Bridgmohan
3-2-1 in seven starts
Hot 6-1 contender,. Louisiana Derby champ hated Blue Grass polytrack surface. Today targets hot early pace.
14,
Monba
Mill Ridge Farm Ltd & Jamm Ltd (Ky)/Todd Pletcher
Ramon Dominguez
3--0-0 in five starts
Blue Grass victor a 15-1 contender today. On best day fits. Won here as 2-year-old.
12,
Smooth Air
Mount Joy Stables (Fla)/Bennie Stutts, Jr
Manoel Cruz
3-2-2 in seven starts
Useful longshot, 20-1 program odds. Gritty horse. Trainer Bennie Stutts, Jr. age 70. Gotta love that.
15,
Adriano
Courtlandt Farm (Ky)/Graham Motion
Edgar Prado
3-1-0 in seven starts
Stretch-fused grass horse, but likely strong finisher on dirt today come crunch time at 30-1.
10,
Colonel John
WinStar Farm LLC (Ky)/Eoin Harty
Corey Nakatani
4-2-0 in six starts
Legit SA Derby, but no sand dunes here, just dirt. Vulnerable "hype horse." Bad 4-1 value. Meatball pick. Trainer vastly overrated..
20,
Big Brown
Monticule (Ky)/Richard Dutrow Jr
Kent Desormeaux
3-0-0 in three starts
Public choice, but 3-1 from 20-hole, doesn't add up. Likely fried well-done in early speed battle. Trainer popping off never good. Pass. 'Brown will let you down.
2,
Tale of Ekati
Charles Fipke (Ky)/Barclay Tagg
Eibar Coa
3-1-0 in six starts
Wood Memorial winner, but final furlong timed with sun dial. Forget Wood, a memorial to bad race.
6,
Z Fortune
Delehanty Stock Farm (NY)/Steve Asmussen
Robby Albarado
3-2-0 in six starts
Interesting at 15-1 today, runnerup vs. Gayego at Oaklawn's Arkansas Derby. Inspected for class today.
7,
Big Truck
A Lakin & Sons (NY)/Barclay Tagg
Javier Castellano
3-1-1 in eight starts
Seen worse 50-1 shots. Impressive April 28 Churchill drill, hated Keeneland polytrack. Two previous Tampa dirt efforts strong
1.
Cool Coal Man,
Breeder/stable: W S Farish, EJ Hudson Jr Irrevocable Trust et al (Ky)/Nick Zito,
Jockey: Julian Leparoux,
Record: 4-1-0 in eight starts.
This 20-1 athlete needs races spaced. Returns too quick today from dismal April 12 Blue Grass.
11,
Z Humor
Jayeff B Stables (Ky)/Bill Mott
Rene Douglas
2-0-3 in eight starts
Good Humor, not. Blinks off and 30-1. Disappointed in Illinois Derby, another throw-out race like Wood Memorial. Last quality race seven months ago. Adios.
16,
Denis of Cork
Westbury Stables (Fla)/David Carol
Calvin Borel
3-0-0 in four starts
Stretch kicker (20-1) slow-pace victim at Illinois Derby. Not good enough. Even with Sammy Sosa's cork.
4,
Court Vision
W S Farish & Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership (Ky)/Bill Mott
Garrett Gomez
3-1-2 in six starts
Hot jock (20-1) helps, but late charge in Wood optical illusion when winner finishes in :13 4/5.
13,
Bob Black Jack
Gary Howard Marlene Howard & Bruce Dunmore (Cal)/James Kasparoff
Richard Migliore
3-2-1 in seven starts
Cagey young conditioner sadly infected by Derby fever, too bad. Classy miler, today out of best game even at 20-1.
5,
Eight Belles
Robert N Clay & Serengeti Stables (Ky)/Larry Jones
Gabriel Saez
5-2-1 in nine starts
Filly vs. colts, OK sometime, but not today even at 20-1. Destined to be pace casualty.
8,
Visionaire
Reiley McDonald (Ky)/Michael Matz
Jose Lezcano
3-1-1 in six starts
Sentimental at 20-1 one-run closer for Mike Martz, Barbaro trainer No mutuel window accepts sentiment. Pass.
17,
Cowboy Cal
Stonerside Stable (Ky)/Todd Pletcher
John Velazquez
3-2-0 in six starts
Insures honest pace. At 20-1 looks like pace casuality.
3,
Anak Nakal
Buckram Oak Farm (Ky)/Nick Zito
Rafael Bejarano
2-1-0 in six starts
Next please. Rider upgrade on 30-1 deep closer, but other than 2-year-old win on track, not good enough.
18,
Recapturetheglory
Charles Jacobi/Louie Roussel III
E.T. Baird
2-1-2 in six starts
Will go hard early at 20-1. Be done late. Have taxi waiting.
Summing up:
Twenty horses a rodeo, not a horse race. Pretenders get in way of contenders.
Gayego has distance pedigree question, but he's a pro, means a lot. Not speed crazy, handicaps to be tactical, forwardly placed but hopefully within control. Trainer Paulo Lobo (from Brazil) very underrated.
Pyro smokes late, has solid dirt form. Toss out Blue Grass debacle on polytrack. Pedigree says longer the better.
Monba picks up pieces. He's versatile and flexible on all tracks.
Good Luck,
Fred Lamb
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