He does get off clean, but at 20, he still will need to expend a lot of effort to get up to the lead. That was the trade off. In his first two races, BB had small fields and was either at the lead or just off of it. The F.Derby he had the far outside draw in a 12 horse (I think) field. 12 is not 20, and actually, on Saturday, a few of the horses just to BB's left are expected to go for the lead. Maybe he can settle in just on that group's right and get there, but if that does not happen (and my thinking is all the other trainers know this and some may not allow it to happen), you run the risk of getting shuffled into the pack. That has never happened to BB, and many a good 3 year old has found themselves in this very position for the first time, and it was over right there.

Now Dutrow knows all this and still took 20. Tells me he would rather take the assured clean break first. Come hell or high water, BB is going to the front. Will he make it in good shape?