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The Chip Board Archive 18

I was disagreeing with your original...

you said, "Sorry but I think that this "bad beat" would have been avoided with a good size raise right at the beginning and a continuation bet on the flop. If he bets when he should have,then most likely this beat never happens."

I was disagreeing with your original advice which was for Dennis to put in a "big bet" there on the flop. I also disagree with your additional statements above. Ernie is not folding to a preflop raise. If Dennis raises the pot up flop and let's say Ernie just calls the raise, and he's not folding to a bet on the flop. The pot is too big. Are you even considering how much Ernie has (or actually doesn't have) at this point in the tournament?

Sure we can nit pick the preflop play too. But even at that, but Ernie (with AQ) is not folding preflop to a raise. When this hand starts, Ernie only has $975 and the blinds are 50/100. He has less than ten big blinds left when this hand starts. Ernie smooth calls the $100 so now he only has $875 after his call preflop. When action gets around to Dennis in the big blind... If Dennis raises up the pot right now, Ernie is calling or maybe even moving all-in this point... (so I disagree with you preflop raise assessment).

ok, so let's evaluate the play with no preflop raise... We have three callers to the flop and pot is $350... If Dennis bets out on the flop, how do you know the AQ doesn't call a bet here on the flop? Heck if it was me I would just go all-in and here's why...

Let's say I have AQ and flop comes Jack-Jack-Ten. A guy bets into me... Usually unless this guy is real tricky most people will slow play three jacks in this spot. (Some tricky guys will bet out on purpose with three jacks to fool the rest of the players into thinking he's bluffing - but most people will check it). Ok, so I have AQ and Dennis bets... I will most likely think he has a ten or maybe bluffing... Well, I have two over cards and a gut shot and heck I my have best hand at this point. (You also said Dennis had a flush draw and that's not correct, no one has a flush draw yet except runner runner flush).

Let's go to cardplayer.com and see what our odds are at this point with my assumption that I am guessing Dennis has a ten when he bets into me... I plugged in actual cards in play and cardplayer.com says Ernie has a 32% chance of winning the hand and also a 2% chance of a tie). Based on the preflop action, the pot is $300 plus Dennis's hypothetical $200 bet, that makes the pot $550. It's only costing him $200 at this point and I think he either calls or just moves all in. Ernie only has $875 left going into the flop and on top of this he will be in the bb and sb the next two hands. I don't think Ernie is folding to a bet on the flop. Heck he called off his last $675 on the turn too without a made hand at that point...

Messages In This Thread

Another new standard of bad beat attained
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
rofl rofl rofl rofl rofl.
Shoop WAS hot last week huh?I
ya want a bad beat tonight ??????
Why didn't you raise on the flop?
I disagree...
Sorry...I bet there and preflop as well
I was disagreeing with your original...
So..they both made mistakes then?
I agree with that... we could analyze it all...
Re: ya want a bad beat tonight ??????
you HAD to split the difference?
she's gonna teach you a new meaning to "bad beat"
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
Cheese to go with that Whine ?
Re: Cheese to go with that Whine ?
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
I guess that should read..texas hold em
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained
Buzz...I love that chip!
YES!!!! That's what I wanted to hear!
Re: Another new standard of bad beat attained

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