As the (oft humiliated) oddsmaker of many props, I offer the following opening numbers:
("THE BILL" shall mean any legislation sponsored by Rep. Frank and others on the subject of repealing the Internet Gambling Funding Prohibition Act -- within current session which ends in December 2008)
THE BILL gets "first reading"..... 1:10 (Rep. Frank now says he will introduce the bill, so this seems inevitable)
THE BILL passes sub-committee by majority vote..... 1:3 (Bills sponsored by Committee chairmen have a pretty good record of getting past the initial stage)
THE BILL passes full committee by majority vote..... 1:2 (High record of bills passing full Committee once sub-committee has passed)
THE BILL passes full House by majority vote..... 4:1 (The major question is -- how will a body that voted overwhelmingly 4 to 1 against this issue a year ago now suddenly reverse itself?)
Note: This bill would then have to go through the Senate committee process..... NA
THE BILL passes Senate by majority vote..... 6:1 (If the Bill passes the House, that likely means it has serious legs, and likely picked up support from the banking industry and other powerful lobbying influences. Still, the Senate tends to be less persuaded by highly partisan flavor of the month issues than the House, and would pose an obstacle).
THE BILL is signed into law by the President..... 24:1 (No doubt, the President will oppose this legislation in its current form, which is why picking up political allies will be vital -- banking industry, free traders, etc.)
Other (more likely) possibilities:
THE BILL is revised at some point and includes a provision that passage is recommended by US trade authorities to comply with the WTO ruling -- which means the BILL would also have to pass committees dealing with trade. Note: Getting this BILL into a committee on trade would a blessing, because it would difficult even for Republicans to ignore the implications of ignoring a WTO ruling.
THE BILL is tacked onto another piece of legislation as a rider amendment, in much the same manner it was originally passed by Sen. First in Sept. 2006. Note: This would have the greatest chance of becoming law, since there is no line-tem veto and both the Senate and President would have to approve.
Personal comments: This bill has a number of obstacles. Three primary challenges are (1) lack of bi-partisan support (at this stage) in the House, (2) no known support in the Senate, and (3) virtually certain opposition from the President.
-- Nolan
