After thinking about it a little, it occurred to me that the author may not have been so clever after all. What he did was come up with a way to be guaranteed to come out ahead. His system, however, locked him in at a lower expected value than if he had simply put his money on the pass line every time. He would not have been guaranteed to come out so far ahead every time, but over time, he would probably have made more money. Why? Because he protected his pass and don't pass bets with a poor EV bet on the 12, thus lowering his expected value over time. If his entire goal was to make the guaranteed money and leave, then his system is still quite good, but, if you read the story, you will see that he did gamble at other locations. I guess he was willing to gamble then, but not at Vegas World!

Just a gambler's observation.

Michael Siskin