I asked that same question a couple years ago. Something like..."How is it that I can buy a chip from a casino that closed 20+/- years ago and it looks like it just was manufactured?" A few veteran chippers emailed me with some some good advice. A couple weeks after that I attended the Palms Show and took some of the chips I was curious about and showed them to those guys. I'm now satisfied that I hadn't been duped but for the most part I went back to my old policy... if I didn't get it personally off the table then I don't buy it.
I fully realize this will not work for everyone nor the new collector. I started collecting in the early 1980's well before I knew of which I joined 10 years ago so I have a number of pretty good chips. I do occasionally fill in with a chip from a casino that I couldn't get to or didn't know existed but I'm careful. I just deal with a few veteran chip venders that I've grown to trust over time. And, I go with a couple new issue services(NIS).
I had an experience with a NIS about six years ago that has further solidified my pessimism. A "Year of the ---" was offered for mid-two figures with the statement that it was very special and would be gobbled up by specific others. Sort of,"...get in on the ground floor on this!" I had dealt with the NIS before so I took the bait and bought one. Now I keep it as my "cooling off chip" because I haven't seen it sold for over $15 since. To be fair a year or so later I discussed the chip with that NIS and was told I'd get my money back which I appreciated but didn't do. It was kind of like when Ron "Tater Salad" White says, "I had the right to remain silent but not the ability."
I had been looking for a certain chip for a couple years and at the convention last year I asked a gentleman who was referred to as an expert on the area and he said, "...the chip didn't exist, never heard of it." Two rows behind him was another dealer who had the chip.
I'd guess my best advice is keep studying and watching but be wary. Caveat Emptor rules.
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