Hiya Tim, you're making a lot of pertinent observations about chip values and market mechanics. All of us have the same anxieties when we start exploring chip collecting. I think I paid to much for a chip early on and it really burned me...but now I can't really remember which chip it was, but I've still got it! After a year or so, you'll have your own collector's "eye" for chips you want or know. If you select chips for your collection that you like, enjoy and want, you'll never be disappointed in their worth. You'll find out soon Tom, that as much fun as the chips are, the people in the hobby make it worthwhile too. Don't miss the convention in Las Vegas this summer, there's gonna be a whole bunch of friends you there you never knew you had!