I personally don't buy for investment. I collect for fun. If a chip happens to appreciate, all the better. Problem with this theory is, I don't sell my collection and probably won't, so I really don't have much concern for final values. Someone else is going to get them all for free.

From experience, when I do have extras, or if I buy to re-sell, if I break even I'm doing well.

Since the harder to find chips are usually in short supply, there's always a chance that they will go up in value, if there's a demand.

You are also correct that someone might find a cache of some chip and the once "expensive" chip will become less valuable.

Chips, unlike sports cards, are not a manufacturered item, where some collectibles factory turns them out and controls the issue and supplies. As for coins, that's a real good place to look at what can go wrong with a hobby. Coins are not a good investment, but people still think they are. Sports cards are not a good investment. Chips shouldn't be looked at as an investment either.

Speculation is a different question. Can someone buy a rare chip and then try to re-sell it because they believe the market price is higher? yes.

One would think that bank notes, old and made by the federal government would be fairly stable. But there are still finds in vaults or safety deposit boxes, which knock the heck out the the values now and then.

With more and more chip collectors digging for old chips, more finds are being made. ABout five years ago I was wondering when it would slow down. Instead we collectors are still chasing down old chips and still finding them. Also people who have a stack or some boxes of old chips in the attic, notice that they are now collectible, instead of junk, and bring them to the market.

All someone has to do is look at how the Chip Rack has grown in the last ten years to see how many more chips are discovered. Personally I'm pretty amazed at the numbers and the new finds that are still being made. That's part of the fun.

For your question, say you buy a few old arrowdie chips and in five years decide to part with them. Chances are good, if you bought carefully with research, that you at worst will break even, and if they are desirable chips, a good chance you will make a small profit. As long as someone else doesn't find a box of them, which makes for news, but doesn't really happen that often.

Do it for fun and you'll never lose.

As for relative risks, I'd say casino chips are better than coins or cards. Cards were a fad item, went way out of line and now people who paid too much can't get half of what they paid. High prices, low demand.

Coins are pretty much a flat market. You pay a "book" price and the actual resale value is lower to start with. That's the only way a coin dealer can stay in business. Buy at lower prices, re-sell at higher prices. It isn't like 1909 S VDBs are being found in circulation anymore. The only supply if buy and sell.

I might add that chip values are still getting sorted out and new collectors are still getting interested every day. Hard to find chips are still in demand by new collectors.

Hope that helped with your question without bringing up too many other questions, or sounding negative. I think collecting as a hobby is very reasonable and there are no limits. Everyone can play in their own league, collecting what they want. The variations sometimes look endless even though there are a finite number of chips made, the number is the 10s of thousands, even looking for just $1 chips.

If it's investment, any collectible is risky and you can make more by putting your money into a savings account. There's no thrill to the chase or pride in ownership, or having a historic hobby or just having fun, when you just bank your money. But I'll bet you'll make more profit getting flat interest that with any collectible, buying and hoping for an equal increase by the time you decide to re-sell.

Hobby = Entertainment.