I can appreciate your enthusiasm, but I’d like to make a few comments…

1) You mention that James and Steve have this as an R-10. Even after Don pointed out to you that the population is clearly higher than that and I further pointed out no less than 5 auctions for this chip just on eBay, you still cite C&W’s value in relation to the Sam Landy chip (which I’ve seen less of than the Fogel, by the way).

2) You say “ebay chips get about 30% - 40% of retail (wholesale market values) versus shows which get much closer to the retail value (100% and up).” I believe that this is an uninformed opinion. If this were true, then you would not be seeing high end dealers putting chips up on eBay. Now, I would agree that for certain chips, eBay does represent the “wholesale” market… while for others it represents the true “retail” market. There are chips that sell on eBay at levels higher than dealers have ever seen in their binders simply because of the much broader exposure that chips get on eBay. There seems, lately, to be a big supply of deep-pocket buyers flowing into the hobby who are probably finding the hobby through eBay. I see daily that they are buying chips at ever increasing prices…many higher than “book values”, which, as everyone knows, are the only “real” measure of a chip’s worth.

You make the assertion that “Drilled is worth about 30% of the same undrilled.” It’s another inaccurate assumption. Ever take a look at drilled vs. undrilled Flamingos, for instance? As an example, a drilled $5 N6508 (blue rectangle mold with black inlay – flamingo right) is a relatively common chip, and you see ‘em on eBay often, selling in the $60 to $100 range. The undrilled version of the chip sells in the $1500 to $2000 range or higher.

Now, unfortunately, I keep my current versions of The Chip Rack and C&W in my office, but I can see from my 8th edition of TCR that this chip was valued in the 300 range when the population assumption was a very tiny number. I can’t understand why you would think that the chip would have increased in value if the known population has increased.

“The Fogel is worth over $1,600 at a show.” It’s worth what someone will pay for it, but I don’t think that you’ll find an informed buyer who will shell out that kind of money for this chip and you shouldn’t be leading this fellow to believe that he will see this kind of money for this chip either.