> Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001
>
> Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's
> attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from
> surprise.
>
> As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have
> a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be
> won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or
> soldiers. Let me briefly explain.
>
> In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us,
> this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To
> dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack
was
> committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take
> this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics,
> but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made
> with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it
> was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also
because
> we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we
> think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with
the
> formidable Japanese in the years following WW II.
>
> These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not
> underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the
> world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral
is
> to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman
> underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times
more
> important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are
willing -better
> said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause.
>
> How committed are we America? And for how long?
>
> In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
> demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare
> taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security
and
> surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
> trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was
> not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military
> competence to be displayed in the battle to come.
>
> This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in
> the good ol' U.S. of A. These men will not go easily into the night.
They
> do not fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming
> conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly
term),
> we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully
scripted
> rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize
that
> America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be
> certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some
> excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained
for
> hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch,"
(which
> may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if
> their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to
> die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time
> consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
> countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply
put,
> our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple
> foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until
the
> strategy and tactics can be worked out.
>
> For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining
> itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were
> promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and
tactics.
> This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of
gravity"
> to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will
> certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
> metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists
> themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight,
and
> it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and
soldiers,
> not by
> software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military
> leaders.
>
> Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
> adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
> fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
> American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to
> believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is
> generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight.
We
> need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo
> Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States
of
> America without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers
who
> marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled
and
> spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we
hope
> that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ
the
> concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent
attacks,
> but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from
livestock
> infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution
facilities.
>
> These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the
> average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our
> resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the
> will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the
> enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat
will
> turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be
> right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von
Clausewitz,
> (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says
> that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the (1)
will
> of the people, (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3)
the
> chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that
order.
> Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack,
> not just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade
Center
> Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are
to
> win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few
> more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do
> that, we will eventually prevail.
>
> Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common
> frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do
> something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and
> continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is
> certain.
>
> If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
>
> God Bless America
>
> Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
> Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
>