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The Chip Board Archive 03

Gambling, Odds, Hold%, Etc. Long Post

There seems to be a lot of interest on this board when it comes to table game statistics. The chart John Z. posted is a computer generated statistical listing of casino(house) advantages on various games based on optimal play. The math on this chart is correct. That said there are a few things we must keep in mind. Optimal play means perfect strategy, Blackjack for example now has eleven basic strategies depending on house rules. Informal estimates show less than 1 in 100 players play flawless basic strategy. This is for a game that is very popular and probably has more books written than any other casino game. Think how difficult it would be to play perfect strategy for all of the carnival games now available(carnival games is a term casino people have given to Let It ride, Three Card Poker, Car. Stud, etc. etc. etc.) Next keep in mind that small percentage you're giving up recycles every bet. In other words if you place a $100 bet on a game that has a THEORETICAL house advantage of 2%, you only have $98 for your next bet, place that bet and you now have $97.80, this goes on and on till we have all the money! I realize it is probably difficult to understand exactly how this works, please remember anything can happe(and usually does) in the short term, THE ODDS ONLY HOLD TRUE FOR THE HOUSE. Why? We are there 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and in most cases have a bankroll that cannot be compramised to a point of jepordy. Someone asked how a casino could go broke, one word answer-overhead. The only time I've ever heard of a player actually breaking a modern legal casino was a gentleman from Australia named Kerry Packer busting a small new place in the South Pacific. Kerry Packer is the biggest player in the world today. OK, if you're still with me we'll talk about house hold. This is a very important figure to the casino, many jobs have been lost due to this little %. Games should hold over 20% or more. Example: Joe Player walks up to an empty Craps table, It's 8:00 P. M. and the day shift count team just finished and the drop box has been changed. Joe buys in for $1000 in cash which is dropped in the new box. He makes a $500 bet, loses and walks. Now there is $1000 in the box, but $500 in cheques has left that table. The house hold is 50% until new players come in then the whole thing changes over and over until the end of the shift. Let's use another scenario and say Katie the collector is the first one to walk up to our table. Katie has the collecting bug bad and now collect $500 chips. She throws down her money, gets her $500 chip and walks. There is $500 on the box, but $500 in chips are gone, our table is now holding 0%. I hope this has answered some of your questions, if you have anymore see me at the convention, buy me a beer, and I'll talk all night. Jim

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Gambling, Odds, Hold%, Etc. Long Post
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