... this one to me:

>> The house advantage of 5.2% is based on all possible bets being placed with
>> the same wager on every spin. If all possible bets are not made on a spin the
>> house advantage goes up considerably. Example: If you place 10 numbers, you
>> have the 5.2% house advantage going against you and you have the other 27
>> numbers going against you.

The 5.2% house edge is BASED on all the numbers you didn't bet on. There is no greater disadvantage to betting on a single number than there is betting on every number, as you can see from the following:

If you make a $1 bet on each of the 38 numbers (including 0 and 00), you will win one, paid at 35-1, and lose the other 37. Since you get to keep the $1 you bet on the winning number, you end up with $36. The loss of $2 out of $38 equals the house edge of 5.263157894% (as noted by Pete Porro! <g>).

Now, if you bet $1 on the same number 38 times in a row, on average you will win once. It will pay 35-1, you will end up with $36 and the house will be up $2 or 5.26etc%.

The same will happen no matter how you bet, except the five number bet. Just as there is no way for the player to improve his odds, there is also no way for him to diminish them either (as there would be, for example, in blackjack, if the player was not good at it).

Therefore, unless someone IS cheating, the house cannot win more than 5.26% (except on the five number bet) anymore than it can win less than 5.26% ON AVERAGE. Now, since the house plays ALL the time, the actual results will average out very quickly and will remain close to the average of 5.26% over the long haul.

So, the casino hold can't be too much more than 5.26% (it WILL be slightly more, depending on how many plays are made on the five number bet, which has a house edge of 3/38 or 7.89%). If every bet was on the five number spot, the total house edge would BE 7.89%. Mathematically, it can never, on average, be any higher.

So, how can all those casino people be in trouble if the hold isn't more than 5.26% (or slightly higher, since I have no idea how often the five number bet is played)? I suppose it is possible that there is a flaw in my analysis, but I sure don't see it.

What is the actual hold over a long period of time, say a year, from the Fiesta's roulette tables (if that's not considered confidential information)?

Thanks, Gene. ----- jim o\-S