The Chip Board
Custom Search
   


The Chip Board Archive 03

Re: Yes, Yes, Yes! Craps and odds

I'm sure you're right when you say the house has a 1.41% advantage on a line bet. I, however, calulated the advantage to be 2.25%. Here is my reasoning.

A line bet can be won or lost either on the opening roll or once a point has been estalished. There is a 33.3% chance that the opening roll will produce a win or loss (2,3,7,11,or 12 i.e. 12 ways out of 36 possible ways). The expected return on a $1 bet if there is a win or loss on the opening roll is $0.33. (8 ways to win and 4 ways to lose nets a +4/12 or .33). There is a 66.7% chance that a point will be established. The expected return if this event occurs is -$0.20. (6 ways to lose and 4 ways to win nets -2/10 or -.20. 4 ways to win is the average winning ways of 4,5,6,8,9,10).

Therefore: 33.3% X (expected return if opening roll produces a win or loss) + 66.7% X (expected return if a point is established) =.333(.33)+.667(-.20)= -.0225 or -2.25%.

I assume I made an error somewhere. It seems reasonable what I did.

Messages In This Thread

Roulette & 5.2%
Re: Roulette & 5.2%
Re: Roulette & 5.2%
Re: Roulette & 5.2%
Re: Roulette & 5.2%-Duh!!!
Re: Roulette & 5.2% - a starting point
Re: No, no, no, ...
Quick Calculations ...
Re: Yes, Yes, Yes! Craps and odds
Re: Yes, Yes, Yes! Craps and odds
Craps and odds, the error is...
Re: Craps and odds, the error is...
Re: No house edge
You're all wrong, your chances are 50/50
Re: Roulette & 5.2% - a starting point
Re: Good Roulette Story
A similar story, ....
Re: Good Roulette Story
Gene, you're going to have to explain ...
I should have addressed your exact ...
Re: Gene, you're going to have to explain ...
Re: Gene, you're going to have to explain ...
I got it, Gene ...
It's simple, ...
Re: I got it, Gene ...
Thanks for the simple explanation ...
Re: Thanks for the simple explanation ...
Re: KENO.
Re: I got it, Gene ...
Re: I got it, Gene ...
Re: I got it, Gene ...
You'd like this....
Re: I don't believe it!....
Re: I don't believe it!....
Re: I don't believe it!....
E-town
Re: I don't believe it!....
Nitrous?!?
Re: Nitrous?!?
Re: Nitrous?!?
Re: Nitrous?!?
Re: I got it, Gene ...

Copyright 2022 David Spragg