Steve & John,
I agree with much you both have written. However, many transactions take place privately BECAUSE that is the way the "buyer" wants it!

Auctions do not reflect current market price via demand. All auctions establish is that some individuals (those who bid) are interested in a particular piece at that time. Auctions do not reflect rarity. I will share with you, to the point, an example.

An individual I know, who is no longer involved with our hobby, bought ALL (the original manufacture order less those chips that walked)of the Sky Harbor arodies. The cream colored or white $100.00's with three black inserts were manufactured only in a quantity of 100. How do I know this? A copy of the original order form was included with all the chips purchased by this individual. 60 of the 100 chips were drilled. This means only 40 uncancelled chips will EVER be available to the collecting community. The chips minus 10 or 15 of the undrilled ones were sold to another individual. This means the "new" owner has around 25 give or take a few either way to ever sell. There will be no more of this chip. We have hard paper evidence as seen with my own two eyes. Evidence we don't have with many of the $1,000 - $2,000 priced chips which COULD come out in quantity at any time. No one knows - however, WE DO KNOW about this chip.

This chip is listed in Wells' book as an R-6 for rarity (31 - 75 chips) . The amount is correct but the price is ridiculous! $450.00 is hardly reflective of what the TRUE market price should be considering the many arodie collectors, Tahoe collectors, etc.. TCR lists it around $400.00.
The reason why the chip is not in the $800 - $1000.00 price range where it should be is because the "new" owner put this chip on Ebay without sharing the knowledge I am sharing with all of you. The chip sold for less than price guide values. The "new" owner doesn't care - all he wants to do is get back his investment plus profit.

The problem is the authors of the various price guides DO NOT know (maybe now they do <g>) this information, sooooo they use Ebay sales as a guide. What a joke! Ebay does not reflect the value of this chip. Ebay does not reach many collectors who collect arodies. I could go on and on about THIS CHIP and many others I have knowledge of. What good would it do??? I fought the battle to get removed from TCR many, many California chips being sold as Nevada. Only to see some of them appear in Wells' book! The authors (please do not take offense) are going to put the prices THEY want in the book, afterall IT IS THEIR BOOK!!

As my friend Gene would say - stick a fork in me!!! Best, Jim