John,

While it is true if you take even money you still win on that particular hand, just not as much, when you count up the money at the end of the night, mathamatical odds dictate that you will have less money if you take even money on blackjacks against the dealers ace. On the overall basis it is exactly like taking insurance on any hand with an ace showing. The only people who should take insurance or even money (same thing) are people that count cards, and have determined that the deck is very "ten rich" thus a blackjack is more likely to occur. If you look at a single deck for example. Lets say that you are playing $10 per hand against the dealer heads up, and the very first hand you are dealt a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up. That means there are 49 cards left in the deck that have not been seen. If you do not take insurance you need to win two hands (an extra $5 per hand $10 total) to make up for every blackjack the dealer does have that you would loose out on the even money collection (also $10). So in a nutshell so 1-2 is the odds you have to beat to be ahead by not taking insurance (even money). With 34 cards in the deck that will not give the dealer the blackjack, and only 15 that will, the odds are 1 in 2.4 that the dealer will blackjack. That is about almost a 20% odds disadvantage. On each hand it may seem like a 50/50 bet, but over many sessions the numbers will average out and you will be giving away money by taking even money.

In fact, one of the tip offs to a casino that you are a card counter, is when you obviously play well, never take insurance, then all of the sudden take even money or insurance, and usually there is a large bet out, because the deck is "ten rich". This will mark you as a potential card counter.

Blackjack is a pure numbers game, over the long haul, and many sessions the odds will even out. The difference in being an overall winner and an overall loser will be just a few percentage points. The player cannot give away any percentage of their share and consistantly and long term be a winner.

So just remember you will save $10 on 15 cards ($150), and will give up $5 on 34 cards ($170). I'll take the extra $20! In fact, I have made good money playing at a table where everyone takes even money. I offer to pay them their even money, and let me take the chance with their hand! I like having the extra %%%!

Talk to everyone later.

Steve