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The Chip Board Archive 01

Re: Going to Vegas -- Roulette Math

Jerry ---- no magic here, just numbers. Once any number has been spun, the odds that it will occur on the next spin are 1 in 38 (same as if it hadn't appeared on the previous spin). Therefore, the same number will appear twice in a row on average once every 38 spins of the wheel (assuming that you are not looking for any particular number to start with). Once it has appeared the second time, the odds that it will hit a third time are still 1 in 38 (independent events). You would be just as likely to win big betting on any one of the other numbers as you would be to win by letting your bet ride.

BTW, the probability that a number (any number) will hit three in a row are 1 in 1444, because the first spin can be any number (therefore, the odds are 1/1 x 1/38 x 1/38). So, you should see three in a row of some number once every 1444 spins of the wheel. I have no idea how many spins you get in an hour of play, but if its one a minute, you would see three in a row of something about once every 24 hours. If you are betting only one number, of course, the odds of hitting THAT number three times in a row are 1 in 54,872. If you play more than one number, then let only the winning number ride, the odds depend on how many numbers you play to begin with (for example, if you play four numbers, the probability of hitting one of the four three times in a row is 1 in 13,178 (54,872/4).

The fact that you have played "a lot" of roulette over the past 20 years and have hit the same number three times in a row on four occasions seems to me to be reasonably consistent with the mathematical probabilities (though, of course, its hard to be sure without knowing what you consider "a lot"). Hitting three in a row once every five years when you play a lot seems to pretty much prove my point. I also notice that you apparently have NEVER won even four in a row, much less five or six -- which is also consistent with the mathematical probabilities.

Thanks for helping me prove my point. <g> ------ jim o\-S

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